Bitcoin has climbed nearly 24% from below $64,000 toward $80,000 as U.S. spot ETF inflows and forced short covering have fueled its strongest weekly advance since March 2023.
Summary
- Bitcoin reached a three-month high near $79,550 after rising almost 24% in one week.
- U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted approximately $1.9 billion across five consecutive inflow sessions.
- Analysts said continued spot demand must replace forced buying for Bitcoin to hold above $80,000.
- A confirmed breakout could bring $85,000–$90,000 into view, while rejection may trigger another correction.
Nansen senior research analyst Nicolai Søndergaard told crypto.news that Bitcoin has probably established an important local bottom, although he wants more evidence from U.S. spot markets before treating the rally as a confirmed cycle turn.
Bitcoin traded close to $80,000 on Aug. 24 after advancing from below $64,000 on Aug. 19. The asset reached approximately $79,550 during the run, its highest price since May, according to recent market coverage.
Søndergaard said selling pressure has eased, some whales have resumed selective accumulation, and ETF flows have improved. However, he noted that recent readings still showed weak U.S. spot demand, a price below important holders’ cost bases, and derivatives positions recovering before clear confirmation from cash-market buyers.
“I view Bitcoin’s latest rally as a meaningful improvement in market structure, but not yet as confirmation that the cycle has definitively turned,” Søndergaard said.
Under his base case, Bitcoin is passing through the final stages of a bottoming process rather than beginning a confirmed market-wide advance. Sustained trading above $80,000, once leverage settles, would provide stronger evidence that buyers can support the move without relying on forced position closures.
Bitcoin’s $80K test requires sustained ETF demand
Bitget Wallet research analyst Lacie Zhang said ETF purchases, favorable macro conditions and progress on U.S. crypto regulation have given the rally genuine support. Yet she also attributed part of its speed to traders buying Bitcoin to close leveraged bearish positions.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs collected about $1.9 billion during the week ending Aug. 21, including roughly $606 million on Aug. 20, according to figures cited by the analysts. The funds recorded five straight trading days of inflows, providing a source of spot demand as Bitcoin moved through several resistance levels.
Zhang said the market’s next test will arrive after forced covering loses momentum. ETF buyers would need to keep absorbing available supply while lower yields and a softer dollar maintain a supportive setting for risk assets.
“The latest move looks real, but it is also very fast,” Zhang said.
“For the rally to sustain above $80K, we need to see fresh spot demand continue after the forced covering fades.”
Separate Bitfinex analyst comments also pointed to a combination of spot buying and short covering rather than a rally built mainly on new leveraged longs. During the first part of the breakout, Bitcoin gained between 10% and 11% while aggregate open interest increased by about 4%, according to the firm.
Bitfinex analysts said the difference between price growth and open-interest growth suggested that new leverage played a smaller role. Open interest rising faster than underlying demand would present a less stable setup, particularly if Bitcoin stopped advancing while traders continued adding futures positions.
Søndergaard wants to see a positive Coinbase premium and spot-led trading volume alongside continued ETF inflows. He also said funding should remain moderate, while open interest must not rebuild faster than demand in the underlying market.
Short liquidations accelerated Bitcoin’s rise
The first stage of the rally developed as Bitcoin cleared resistance around $65,000 and moved through liquidation clusters above $67,000. Exchanges then closed short positions that no longer had enough collateral, generating market buy orders that pushed prices higher and triggered additional liquidations.
An earlier liquidation event analysis found that more than $3 billion in leveraged shorts were closed across crypto derivatives markets on Aug. 19 and Aug. 20. Short positions accounted for approximately $2.77 billion, or 92% of the total, while about $1.29 billion was liquidated within a single hour.
Bitcoin shorts made up roughly $1.37 billion of the total, while Ethereum shorts accounted for around $1.01 billion. Binance recorded approximately $518 million in liquidations, Hyperliquid handled about $513 million, and Bybit registered close to $303 million.
Forced buying can increase prices quickly, but each purchase created by a liquidation closes an existing position rather than establishing continuing demand. Søndergaard said a return of rising funding and rapidly expanding open interest during another test of $80,000 would make the advance appear increasingly squeeze-led.
“If $80,000 rejects again while open interest and funding continue to rise, I would interpret the rally as increasingly squeeze-led, leaving room for another correction at some point.”
U.S. spot demand, therefore, remains important for American investors using exchange-traded funds to gain exposure without directly holding Bitcoin. Persistent net inflows would show that investment products are still adding BTC after most of the bearish leverage has already been removed.
Bitcoin could target $90K after a confirmed breakout
Zhang said a clean close above $80,000 followed by a successful defense of the level could open a move toward $85,000–$90,000 over the following weeks. An accelerated run toward $95,000–$100,000 is also possible under her scenario if ETF inflows remain strong and liquidity conditions continue improving.
Still, Zhang described the market as stretched after a weekly gain of about 20%. Rising funding rates, weaker ETF flows, or a failure to retain $80,000 after crossing it could lead to a reset before another advance, she said.
Søndergaard also expects any recovery outside Bitcoin to remain selective. In his view, investors are directing more capital toward assets with measurable use, fee income, token burns, buybacks, or another clear method of returning value to holders.
Under that framework, he described Bitcoin as institutional macro exposure while naming HYPE, selected decentralized finance protocols, and real-world asset infrastructure as candidates for crypto-native capital. He cautioned that higher Bitcoin prices would not automatically lift most altcoins.
“HYPE has a stronger value-accrual case than most tokens because of its protocol activity and buyback-linked economics, but its large open interest also makes it vulnerable to crowded positioning,” Søndergaard said.
ETH and SOL could signal whether the rally is spreading
Zhang expects Ethereum and Solana to receive the first rotation of capital if Bitcoin’s advance starts extending into other parts of the market. Their liquidity makes them more likely to move before infrastructure projects, DeFi tokens, and assets with higher sensitivity to risk appetite, according to her assessment.
Bitcoin dominance would provide one of the main indicators. Zhang said a stalled or declining dominance rate, combined with a rise in the total cryptocurrency market capitalization excluding Bitcoin, would offer evidence that demand is reaching more assets.
Movements in the ETH/BTC and SOL/BTC pairs could supply further confirmation because both measure whether Ethereum and Solana are gaining value against Bitcoin rather than merely rising in dollar terms.
Macroeconomic data may also affect spot demand. A report on upcoming U.S. data noted that July Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation and revised second-quarter gross domestic product figures are due on Aug. 26, followed by Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole address on Aug. 28.
June core PCE inflation stood at 3.3%, above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, while the advance estimate showed annualized U.S. economic growth slowing to 1.5% in the second quarter from 2.1% in the first. Zhang said traders should also monitor stablecoin supply, decentralized exchange volumes, perpetual-futures funding, and whether spot volume leads the next round of gains.
