The past several months have not been kind to XRP. After it marked a new all-time high in mid-July 2025, it has been mostly downhill, losing over 70% of its value, dumping toward $1.00, being surpassed by BNB and USDC in terms of market cap, and registering six consecutive months in the red at one point.
Amid all of these adverse developments, some analysts have turned highly bearish on the asset. While the dominant belief is that XRP has reached its most crucial moment during this cycle, some, such as Ali Martinez, pointed to potential drops to the next crucial support levels at $0.80, $0.62, or $0.51 if the $1.00 floor gives in.
Glassnode warned that XRP token holders continue to realize more losses than profits, indicating intensifying selling pressure even among investors in the red. Even ChatGPT made some worrying predictions if the asset indeed flips $1.00 from support into resistance soon. But maybe such low sentiment is what is needed for XRP to turn things around.
Run Up Instead?
Paradoxically, history shows that the markets rarely reward such consensus. In fact, Warren Buffett has said it best, “Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful.”
Extreme pessimism has frequently appeared near important turning points across the crypto market. BTC, ETH, and XRP have all experienced periods where sentiment collapsed and remained there for a while before major recoveries began. This is generally possible when weak hands exited, and long-term investors quietly accumulated.
For XRP, this accumulation appears to be coming from ETF investors, as the funds tracking its performance have seen a green-only streak of eight consecutive weeks, while the BTC and ETH ETFs have bled out heavily.
The recent sell-off also pushed several on-chain and technical metrics into historically oversold territory. Some analysts argue that XRP may be approaching a zone where risk-reward begins to improve, even if short-term volatility persists.
History is indeed on XRP’s side. Recall that the asset’s sentiment had plunged to similar levels in mid-June but skyrocketed by double digits within 24 hours as the analytics company Santiment attributed that rally to the deteriorating investor behavior.
July Agrees
Current data show that XRP is on track to close June with a decline of over 20%, its worst monthly performance since February 2025. Data from CryptoRank suggests that this aligns with previous performances, as June has been a predominantly bearish month for the asset.
On the contrary stands July. XRP has closed each of the past six editions in the green, showing some impressive gains. Five out of the six have seen double-digit price increases, including massive 45%+ pumps in 2020 and 2023. The median gain for July stands at close to 11%.
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