Iran’s invitation to European, Asian, and Arab nations to discuss transit through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped the odds of a US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 to 8% YES, down from 10% yesterday.
Traders are assessing the impact on the US-Iran ceasefire market, with April 15 odds at 18% YES and April 30 odds ticking up to 38% YES. The term structure indicates traders expect any diplomatic progress after mid-April, with significant shifts between April 15 and April 30. Confidence grows in the May 31 and June 30 markets, now at 56% YES and 62% YES, respectively.
Mid-term sub-markets see the most trading volume. While activity is high, the $1,365,780 traded in the last 24 hours suggests a cautious market. The order book shows $15,138 can shift the April 7 market by 5 percentage points, indicating smaller trades have impact.
Iran’s outreach hints at possible de-escalation, but it’s not a peace deal yet. For traders, the 38% YES on April 30 offers a 2.63x payout if resolved positively. Betting on an early ceasefire seems risky without concrete developments or mediator involvement. Watch for any scheduled talks or mediator engagement.
Monitor CENTCOM, Oman, and Qatar for updates. A Pentagon briefing or a change in rhetoric from Trump could also affect the odds.
Markets Impacted
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