World Cup 2026 Could Draw $50 Billion in Bets, a First for Prediction Markets

The first World Cup of the prediction-market era

The 2026 World Cup, which kicked off in Mexico City on June 11, is on track to be the largest betting event in history. Per the BBC, Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon projects global wagers could top $50 billion (roughly $500 million per match on average), up from the $35 billion figure from the 2022 tournament in Qatar. The jump tracks the expanded format: 48 teams playing 104 matches across the US, Canada, and Mexico makes for 40 more games compared to four years ago.

There is also a difference in where the money can flow. This is the first modern World Cup to land with most of the U.S. able to bet legally – about 65% of the population, up from roughly 40% in 2022 – and the first in which regulated prediction markets are taking action alongside sportsbooks. Kalshi and Polymarket are listing World Cup event contracts, and newer entrants like FIFA partner ADI Predictstreet have launched soccer products timed to the tournament. Even so, the U.S. is expected to make up less than 10% of the global handle, around $3 billion.

That surge arrives in the middle of a jurisdictional fight. The CFTC proposed a rule on June 10 to define sports event contracts as “gaming” while permitting most of them, even as several states pursue Kalshi for what they call illegal sports betting. Whether the World Cup’s contract volume cements prediction markets as a fixture or hands regulators ammunition is now an open question.

The crypto-gambling sector is treating the tournament as a customer-acquisition event. Stake rolled out a global football campaign fronted by Iker Casillas, Sergio Aguero, Eden Hazard, and Patrice Evra; Betfury launched a $600,000 World Cup event; and 1win is running a tournament with $5 million in rewards. It mirrors the model Macquarie expects industry-wide: use the World Cup to acquire bettors, then convert one-off punters into repeat customers – a 2% to 5% boost to operator earnings into 2027, with Flutter, parent of Fanduel, best positioned. Flutter CEO Peter Jackson called it the “biggest betting opportunity we’ll have ever seen.”

Not everyone is celebrating. Les Bernal of Stop Predatory Gambling warned the wave could push hundreds of thousands into severe debt, arguing that “99 out of 100 sports bettors lose money in the long-term” and that the industry’s model leans on addicted gamblers. UK research from the National Centre for Social Research found that 79% of gambling revenue comes from the top 10% of spenders. FIFA, meanwhile, stripped gambling sponsors from the names of World Cup host stadiums.